Holi holiday likely to break positive momentum build-up of last week

By: Arun Kejriwal

The week went by and saw markets lose on the first two days and then it witnessed extreme volatility with markets gaining 0.8 percent, losing almost all of it on Thursday and then gaining a massive 1.5 percent on Friday.

The week which saw markets gain on three of the five trading sessions ended with gains across the broad market. BSESENSEX gained 345.04 points or 0.58 percent to close at 59,808.97 points while NIFTY gained 128.55 points or 0.74 percent to close at 17,594.35 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200, and BSE 500 gain 0.80 percent, 0.98 percent, and 0.98 percent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was the outperformer gaining 1.73 percent while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.95 percent.

The Indian Rupee gained 79 paisa or 0.95 percent to close at Rs 81.96 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost in just one of the five trading sessions and gained in four sessions. Three of these sessions were continuous as the week closed on a positive note. Dow Jones gained 574.05 points or 1.75 percent to close at 33,390.97 points.

Our markets fell on Thursday because the bond yields were rising in the US and touched the 4 percent level in February. Friday saw a huge rally on the back of positive news flow on the Adani group where a fund manager based out of the US, GOG Partners Emerging Markets Equity Fund invested Rs 15,500 crore approx. in four of Adani's companies. These shares were bought from the Adani family. At close on Friday, gains in two days since buying the shares on Thursday were about 33.45 percent in the case of one company and about 11.1 percent -11.32 percent in the case of the other three.

On the same day, the Supreme Court appointed a six-member panel to look into the allegations against the group and submit a report in a sealed cover within two months. This would clear doubts raised by Hindenburg, the continuous disruption in Parliament would now stop and alleged cronyism, a charge raised by the opposition would also be resolved.

Very clearly this puts the Adani issue on the back-burner as far as the markets are concerned and they would move on. As this was an issue that haunted the markets for five weeks, the temporary resolution and moving on turned the sentiment on the street from despair to optimism, which was also reflected in markets moving up.

SEBI has issued orders in the AXIS Mutual Fund front-running case against as many as 21 entities that have been barred from accessing Capital markets. Wrongful gains of Rs 30.5 crore were made by these entities. They have to disgorge these gains and then also pay fines. They have been asked to provide a full inventory of their assets. Hopefully, now, details of the owner of the elusive Lamborghini which was used by the Axis dealer would become clear and solve the mystery of the car owner.

Money being spent on buying fancy apartments and cars by key personnel of new-age companies continues. The latest to join this list is Deepinder Goyal of Zomato who bought a Ferrari even though losses of Zomato have widened post the Q3 results. Wonder what message they are trying to send?

The week ahead has a trading holiday on account of Holi. It appears as of now the holiday would be on Tuesday the 7th of March in Maharashtra and the markets, and on Wednesday the 8th of March in the rest of the country. This would break the momentum in the markets as volumes would dry up. Coming to the markets in the week ahead, expect high volatility to dominate the markets. The last three days' move in Indian markets clearly shows how clarity of trend eludes the market. They are looking for clues to determine the trend.

The first point of resistance on the indices would be at levels of 17,750-17850 on NIFTY and 60,250-60,550 on BSESENSEX. This is not to suggest that markets have to necessarily reach these levels. The guidance is on account of the change in mood and upbeat sentiment posted some clarity on the Adani group last week.

The higher resistance would remain in the region of 18,265 on NIFTY and 61,400 on BSESENSEX. This currently looks like Mount Everest for our markets. On the lower side strong support exists at the budget day low made on 1st February of 58,816.64 points on BSESENSEX and 17,353.40 points on NIFTY. If these are broken then the next line of defense would be 17,000-17,050 on NIFTY and 57,900-58,050 on BSESENSEX.

The strategy for the week would be to allow markets to find their equilibrium during Monday's trading and then take a call on which way markets would go when they resume trading on Wednesday. Expect a super volatile week ahead.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)