India faces tough balancing act amid escalating Middle East conflict

Middle East conflict: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi presided over a Cabinet meeting on security Friday to address the escalating conflict in the Middle East. According to Press Trust of India, the meeting focused on the implications on trade and the supply of petroleum products.

India expressed grave concern regarding the escalation of the security situation involving Israel and its neighbors, emphasizing that "the conflict must not take a wider regional dimension."

In view of the increasing tensions, the question is how India will balance its relations with all parties if the situation becomes worse.

Analysts in New Delhi say India should adopt a neutral stance, especially if the situation worsens and a formal war breaks out between Iran and Israel.

India's major concern is a potential extended disruption in trade. Traders worldwide are preparing for this, as the crucial Red Sea shipping route could stay closed to international shipping lines longer than initially expected, likely keeping freight rates and petroleum prices elevated.

Former Indian diplomat Rajiv Dogra told VOA that if the situation got more tense, it would affect the supply chain, imports and exports, and India's interests in the region.

Dogra said that big powers were trying to ensure that the situation does not deteriorate, and that India was also trying to establish peace.

Journalist and author Nilofar Suhrawardy told VOA there would not be a formal war.

Suhrawardy referred to U.S. President Joe Biden's statement that said that the Israeli reaction to the Iranian attack should be proportionate.

She said the Iranian ballistic missile attack Tuesday on Israel was in reaction to the September 27 killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the militant group's headquarters in Beirut, Lebanon.

But if there is a full-scale war, what will be India's stand?

Analysts said India would take a neutral stand. According to Suhrawardy, India has good relations with Israel, Iran, Arab countries and the Palestinians, so it will not take any party's side.

She said she believed the policy India adopted in the Ukraine-Russia conflict would be applied to the Israel-Iran conflict, too.

Modi has spoken to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the past two weeks.

On September 23, he met Abbas in New York on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.

Modi spoke to Netanyahu by phone on Monday. The Indian leader condemned terrorism and urged the release of citizens held hostage by Hamas.VOA/SP