South Asia's 'youth bulge' masks aging population

South Asia's 'youth bulge':- Zahirul Islam, a 52-year-old cafe manager in Dhaka, Bangladesh, has worked all his life supporting his family, with little to save for old age.

Facing retirement at 59, Islam expects to work for another seven or eight years before holding down a job becomes unfeasible.

"Then, it may not be possible to continue working," he said in an interview with VOA.

In eight years, Islam turns 60, joining Bangladesh's growing population of older people. With little savings and no pension plan, he plans to return to his village with his wife rather than rely on his children in the megacity.

"I don't want to be a burden on my children," he said.

Islam's old age prospects mirror the struggles of millions of elderly South Asians, older people who grapple with no savings, income, social security or health insurance.

With a median age of just over 28 years, the region – comprising Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – is one of the youngest in the world.

While this "youth bulge" drives economic growth, it masks a significant demographic shift: Across the region as elsewhere, the number and percentage of older people are increasing, in some cases rapidly.

Now, international development institutions are warning that developing Asian countries are not doing enough to brace for their rapidly aging populations.

"I think addressing the well-being of older people in Asia is a very urgent policy challenge," Albert Park, chief economist of the Asian Development Bank, said during a recent webinar discussion of a landmark report on the continent's aging population.

Unprecedented in its pace, the aging of Asia's population is unique in that it is happening at lower income levels than when advanced economies faced a similar demographic change.

"A concern across the region is the risk that societies will grow old before they amass sufficient resources to adequately support their aging populations," the ADB report said.

With the right policies and programs, however, this challenge could become an opportunity, yielding "a silver dividend" through increased productivity from older people, the report said.

The ADB and other agencies measure population aging by tallying the percentage of people aged 60 or 65 and above. A population is often defined as "aging" when its share of people 65 and older exceeds 7%, "aged" when it is 14% or higher, and "super aged" when it is above 20%.

14% of world

Globally, there were 1.1 billion people aged 60 or older in 2022, representing about 14% of the world population, according to the United Nations Population Fund. The number is expected to double to 2.1 billion by 2050, constituting 22% of the total global population.

Asia’s share of seniors is expected to be even greater. The Asian Development Bank estimates the number of older people in Asia will surge to 1.2 billion by 2050, accounting for more than a quarter of the region’s population. The dramatic rise will "significantly” increase the need for investing in health, social welfare services and other programs, the ADB says.

Among South Asian countries, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives and Sri Lanka will all have more than 20% shares of older people by 2050. Only Afghanistan and Pakistan will have less than 10%, keeping their populations relatively young.

The population aging is not limited to South Asia. In Central Asia, the percentage of older people, currently less than 10%, will rise to an average of 15%, lifting the region's population from "aging" to "aged," according to the U.N.

In Turkey, the share topped 10% last year for the first time, raising concerns that the country is not ready for a surge in its elderly population.

"Turkey needs to implement rights-based elderly policies both at a local and national level, in line with sociological and demographic change," said Mevlüt Ülgen, president of Aegean Geriatrics Association. "In Turkey, old age is seen as a burden through insurance systems."

The demographic shift across South and Central Asia follows a global trend: thanks to advances in health care, medical services and economic development, people are living longer lives while having fewer children.

Life expectancy rises, births sink

In Bangladesh, the average life expectancy has risen to over 72 from about 47 in 1971, when the nation gained independence. Meanwhile, the country's fertility rate has dropped from nearly seven births per woman to fewer than two.

Bangladesh is not the only South Asian country with a young but aging population.

In Sri Lanka, more than 17% of the population is 60 years or older, making it the country with the highest share of seniors in the region.

India, home to the world's largest youth population, is also rapidly aging. The number of Indians aged 60 or older has nearly tripled in the past three decades to more than 150 million people – more than the population of most countries. This number is expected to more than double by 2050.

Himanshu Rath, the founder and chairperson of Agewell Foundation, noted that the number of India's "oldest old" people – those who are 80 or above – is also surging, leaving many with decades to live without an income, pension or family support.

"When people start living beyond 80 to 90 years, their families abandon them," Rath said in an interview with VOA. "People feel frustrated and fed up with caring for their elderly parents. Taking care of elderly people is exhausting. They began thinking, 'You have your own life to live,' and do not have to waste it taking care of your parents."

Advice, jobs for seniors

Agewell Foundation says its aim is "to disabuse the popular mindset that regards old age with a sense of pity for their helplessness."

With a network of 80,000 volunteers, the group, among other initiatives, helps seniors by offering medical and legal advice and finding them second jobs such as tutoring.

"All said and done, I must stress that in every society and in all circumstances, we owe our elderly our respect, our time and our gratitude," Rath said.

The myriad problems facing older people in India, from lack of income and pension to social isolation, echo those of many others across Asia.

In developing Asian countries, 40% have no access to pensions, 60% don't get regular health checkups, and 43% with physical needs lack long-term care, according to the ADB report.

"I think that's a direct call for support, and there are really opportunities where we can see clearly that the government can help fill that space," ADB chief economist Park said.

"And if you add on to that, that many societies are becoming older and older, faster and faster, then the challenges are going to get greater as we go forward," he added.

Afghanistan and Pakistan stand out as the two youngest populations in South Asia, with median ages of 17 and over 20 years, respectively.

Cautioning young population countries against complacency, Park noted that "one luxury young countries have is that they have a little more time to prepare for when much greater shares of their populations are going to be older."